If you’ve been watching the property headlines lately, you’d be forgiven for wondering: is anyone actually buying at the moment?
Interest rates are higher, prices have softened in a number of markets and there is enough happening economically that it can be hard to focus on what is happening in your own world.
But from the conversations we’re having at Rockett Finance, people are absolutely still buying. They’re just buying differently.
Some buyers who spent the past few years competing at packed open homes are finally finding something they haven’t had for a while: time, choice and negotiating power.
What is actually happening to the property market?
The market has slowed. National home prices fell 0.2% in September 2026 and were 3.3% below their March peak, while Brisbane prices were 3.9% below their March peak. Conditions remain uneven across locations and property types.
Lending has softened too. ABS data for the June 2026 quarter showed new dwelling loan commitments down 5.4%, with owner-occupier commitments down 3.3% and investor commitments down 8.6%. First-home buyer commitments fell 2.9% in number, although the value of first-home buyer lending was still 10% higher than a year earlier.
So yes, activity has cooled. But that is very different from saying nobody is buying or that every market is “crashing”.
First-home buyers are finally getting some breathing room
One of the biggest changes I’m seeing is among first-home buyers. Some of my clients spent weekend after weekend competing with dozens of people and watching properties sell well above expectations.
Recently, one of our first-home buyers had been experiencing exactly that. She kept showing up, but constantly missing out was becoming disheartening.
Then conditions changed. There were fewer buyers competing, the seller was motivated and there was actually room to negotiate. She made an offer at a price she previously would not have expected to secure the property for. The seller accepted — and she finally has a home that is hers.
Upgraders can have an opportunity too
We’re also seeing established homeowners explore their next move. If you are selling one property and buying another, “prices are falling” does not automatically tell you whether that is good or bad for you.
You are participating on both sides of the market. Your existing home may sell for less than it would have at the peak, but the larger or more expensive property you want may also cost less. A lower purchase price can also reduce some purchase costs, including transfer duty.
That does not mean every upgrader should move now. It means the useful number is the changeover cost — not just the sale price of your current home.
Investors appear more cautious
This is probably the clearest difference we’re seeing. Many investors seem to be sitting on their hands while they assess recent rate, tax and policy changes. That lines up with the June ABS data, where investor commitments fell more sharply than owner-occupier lending.
Should I wait for prices to fall further?
This is where I come back to something I say to clients regularly: don’t miss the bus while you’re standing at the bus stop.
None of us knows exactly where the bottom of a property cycle will be. If buying suits your lifestyle goals, you have enough savings and buffer, and you can comfortably afford the repayments, I would be cautious about putting your life on hold purely because you are trying to pick the perfect week to buy.
The goal is not to buy because you are afraid of missing out. It is to avoid missing an opportunity that genuinely suits you because you are trying to predict something nobody can know with certainty.
Should I wait until interest rates come down?
We do not know exactly when rates will fall or what else will have changed by the time they do.
If you can comfortably afford the property and repayments at today’s rates, that is a much more useful starting point than building your whole plan around a future rate reduction. If repayment certainty is important, your broker can also discuss whether a fixed-rate option is appropriate for some or all of your lending.
While you wait, property prices, competition, lending policy, income and your own circumstances can all change.
More negotiating power can change the buying experience
Another thing we’re hearing from buyers, & from real estate agents we work with, is that sellers are having to be more realistic. Current market data also shows softer clearance rates, longer selling times and a wider gap between buyer and seller expectations.
For someone who has only experienced the frantic markets of recent years, that can mean having time to inspect twice, arrange building and pest reports, properly consider an offer, negotiate conditions and walk away if the numbers do not work.
The right time is usually more personal than people think
I do not believe there is one universally perfect time to buy property. There is a market; and then there is your market: your income, deposit, repayments, family, job, plans and reason for buying.
If you are not financially ready, a softer market does not suddenly make buying a good decision. But if you are ready, negative headlines should not automatically stop you from exploring an environment that may give you more choice and negotiating power.
Property is for sale. The question is whether you’re ready…
If you have spent the past few years constantly losing out to stronger competition, it may be worth looking again. You may find less competition, more negotiating room and more time to make the decision.
At Rockett Finance, we can work out what you can comfortably afford at today’s rates, what your repayments could look like and whether buying now actually suits your financial position. Then you can make the decision based on your life, rather than trying to guess what the market will do next.
Don’t miss the bus while you’re standing at the bus stop; but make sure it is actually going where you want to go.
If you are ready to explore your options, Book an Appointment with Your Broker (that’s us!.
We’re here to help you through all stages of your journey, (even if yours hasn’t begun yet) and our appointments are complimentary!
Launch what’s next.
Your Broker,
Tara
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
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Prices have fallen from their 2026 peak in a number of markets. National prices were 3.3% below their March peak by September, while conditions still varied significantly by location and property type.
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Not everywhere. However, softer demand, longer selling times and reduced competition have given buyers more negotiating power in some markets. Local conditions matter.
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There is no reliable way to predict the bottom of the market. Consider whether buying suits your goals, savings position, buffer and repayment capacity rather than relying only on short-term price forecasts.
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Not necessarily. Future rates are uncertain, and prices, competition and your own circumstances may change while you wait. Start with whether the property is affordable at current rates.
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Yes. ABS data recorded 29,319 new owner-occupier first-home buyer commitments in the June 2026 quarter, even though the number was 2.9% lower than the previous quarter.
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Yes, but investor activity has softened. The number of new investor dwelling commitments fell 8.6% in the June 2026 quarter.
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Potentially. Upgraders sell and buy in the same market, so the key figure is often the changeover cost between the two properties, not the sale price alone.
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Start with borrowing capacity, deposit, purchase costs, expected repayments, your emergency buffer and your lifestyle goals. Knowing those numbers before making offers gives you a much stronger decision framework.
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ABS — Lending Indicators, June quarter 2026
Released 14 Aug 2026. Total new dwelling commitments -5.4% q/q; owner occupier -3.3%; investor -8.6%; FHB -2.9% in number. 29,319 owner-occupier FHB commitments. FHB lending value +10.0% y/y. Next ABS lending release is 11 Nov 2026 https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/latest-release
realestate.com.au Home Price Report — September 2026
National prices -0.2% in September and 3.3% below March peak; Brisbane 3.9% below March peak. Also reports softer clearance rates, longer selling times and weaker sales volumes. https://www.realestate.com.au/insights/realestate-com-au-home-price-report-september-2026/
RBA — 29 September 2026 monetary policy decision
Cash rate target increased to 4.60%. RBA noted housing prices had fallen in most capital cities and new housing loans had declined noticeably. https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html
Rockett Finance client observations
Statements about fewer competing buyers, more negotiable sellers, investor caution and the anonymised FHB story are Rockett Finance / Tara frontline observations — not national statistics.